By Jia Nan Song
On June 4, well-known Apple supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo dropped some major news. He pointed out that the XR headset and smart glasses roadmap he mapped out over a year ago is basically outdated now. Honestly, if you look at the updated plan, only two smart glasses projects are still clearly on the table.
According to Kuo, this huge strategic shift has already been signed off by John Ternus, Apple’s incoming CEO. The pivot isn’t just talk—it’s already happening. And honestly? Kuo thinks scrapping the Vision Pro line was a smart move. Apple’s clearly shifting its focus and pouring resources into smart glasses, which have way more mass-market potential than high-end headsets.
Based on Kuo’s latest supply chain intel, Apple’s AR/XR smart glasses featuring optical waveguide displays won’t hit stores until 2029. Meanwhile, the simpler AI-powered smart glasses—think along the lines of Meta’s Ray-Ban collab but without built-in screens—are still slated for mass production and launch in 2027.
This isn’t Kuo’s first time mapping out Apple’s wearable strategy. Last June, he shared a detailed roadmap covering Apple’s head-worn devices from 2025 through 2028, including both the Vision lineup and upcoming smart glasses. Back then, he emphasized that Apple sees these wearables as the next big wave in consumer tech. At the time, seven projects were reportedly in the pipeline: three Vision models and four pairs of smart glasses. Five had set release windows, while two were still under wraps.
Kuo has long believed that those fashion-forward smart glasses will be Apple’s gateway product. He predicts they’ll start shipping alongside other wearable launches, hitting between 3 million and 5 million units by 2027—if not more. With Apple’s brand power and ecosystem pulling weight, the entire smart glasses category could easily surpass 10 million shipments that same year, turning into a massive emerging trend.
So why does Apple have the upper hand? It comes down to top-tier hardware engineering and a tightly knit ecosystem. But the real hurdle? Still software. Building an AI-driven OS and app ecosystem for wearables is no small feat. In the meantime, expect other brands to flood the market with competing smart glasses to grab early adopters. That said, since the tech and design still need serious polishing, these devices will likely stay niche playthings for the next couple of years.
Let’s rewind to when Vision Pro first launched. It debuted at WWDC in June 2023, hit US shelves in February 2024 with a $3,499 starting price, and rolled out in China that June for ¥29,999. Under the hood, it runs on Apple’s M2 plus R1 dual-chip setup, packs dual 23MP Micro-OLED displays, and is loaded with over a dozen infrared and image sensors. You control everything with eye tracking and hand gestures—a pretty impressive piece of engineering on paper.
Hardware-wise, the original Vision Pro definitely belongs in the global MR leader pack. But once it actually hit the market? Sales fell far short of even Apple’s own internal projections.
Data from IDC’s global XR tracking paints a clear picture. In 2024, Apple only moved around 390,000 units worldwide, with most of those sold right during the launch quarter. Things took a sharp turn downward in 2025. Even after Apple refreshed the device in October 2025 with a newer M-series chip and improved comfort band, IDC predicted Q4 shipments would barely creep up to 45,000 units.
Third-party trackers like IDC and Canalys put the cumulative global sales figure at just around 600,000 units as of April 2026. Add in a return rate that’s noticeably higher than Apple’s usual benchmarks, and you’ve got what many are calling Apple’s quietest hardware launch in nearly a decade.
So, what went wrong? It’s a mix of factors. Comfort was a major dealbreaker—sitting anywhere between 750g and 800g, the headset digs into your face and strains your neck after a while. Toss in an external battery pack, and portability goes straight out the window. Throw in the steep price tag and a thin app ecosystem, and it’s easy to see why mainstream buyers stayed away.
That near-$4,000 entry price in China alone kept everyday shoppers firmly on the sidelines. High prices also made third-party developers hesitant to jump in, leaving visionOS with a surprisingly small library of native apps. It trapped the whole product in a frustrating feedback loop: pricey → low sales → less developer interest → weak ecosystem → even lower sales. Hard to break out of that cycle.
Industry reaction has been pretty split, too. Tech reviewers and pros have praised the build quality and mind-blowing spatial visuals. But outside the lab, most consumers just see it as a luxury toy for enthusiasts. Business use cases haven’t really caught fire either—they’re mostly stuck in niche spots like high-end offices or immersive museum exhibits.
Interestingly, not everyone’s reading the tea leaves the same way. Veteran tech reporter Mark Gurman recently highlighted a few details where his take diverges slightly from Kuo’s. Gurman noted that Apple’s absolutely working on a slimmer, lighter headset to eventually replace the pricier Vision Pro. But he’s skeptical it’ll drop before late 2028 or 2029, mainly because Apple still needs to crack the code on weight reduction and cost management.
Gurman also shared that Apple’s first consumer smart glasses have been pushed back to end of 2027. These won’t try to replace your daily shades—they’re designed to fit seamlessly into everyday life. Think traditional optical frames with a vertical oval camera, built-in speakers, and mics. You’ll get basics like photo/video capture, music playback, calls, Siri voice commands, and walking directions.
Don’t expect AR overlays just yet. Gurman points out that true augmented reality still needs a few more years of tech maturation. For now, Apple is laser-focused on nailing comfort, camera quality, and AI interactions. Features like health tracking and full AR integration will roll out gradually down the road.
Here’s the kicker, though: Tim Cook is treating these smart glasses as a top-tier strategic priority. Gurman emphasizes that pushing this project forward is literally Cook’s main mission before he officially hands over the reins on September 1st.
